In a recent development, the UNFPA State of World Population Report 2023, unveiled on Wednesday, reveals that India is poised to become the most populous country globally, with an estimated population of 1.4286 billion by the middle of this year, in
ching slightly ahead of China's 1.4257 billion. This significant milestone underscores India's trajectory towards becoming the world's most populous nation.
The report highlights a pivotal demographic trend, indicating that a substantial 68 percent of India's total population falls within the 15 to 64 age range, categorically defined as the working-age population. The age distribution further illustrates that 25 percent belong to the 0-14 age bracket, 18 percent are aged between 10 and 19 years, 26 percent fall between 10 and 24 years, and 7 percent are aged 65 and above.
Comparatively, the previous year saw China retain its status as the most populous nation, with an estimated 1.448 billion people, while India's population was approximated at 1.406 billion. A different UN report, the World Population Prospects 2022, released in July the previous year, projected India's population to soar to 1.668 billion by 2050, significantly surpassing China's dwindling population of 1.317 billion. Remarkably, India's population in 1950 stood at 861 million, while China's was at 1.144 billion. According to UN projections, India's population is anticipated to experience continuous growth for the next three decades, followed by a gradual decline.
Notably, the global population surpassed 8 billion last November, prompting the latest UNFPA report to emphasize that this growth is occurring at the slowest rate since 1950, with an increase of under 1 percent in 2020. The report approximates the global population at 8.045 billion, with 65 percent aged between 15 and 64 years, 24 percent ranging from 10 to 24 years, and 10 percent aged 65 and above. In this context, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) regards India's 1.4 billion populace as an equivalent number of opportunities. Andrea Wojnar, the representative for UNFPA India and the country director for Bhutan, resonates this perspective as the world reaches the 8 billion milestone.
In summary, the UNFPA State of World Population Report 2023 underscores India's imminent position as the world's most populous nation, projecting a population of 1.4286 billion by mid-year, edging out China. The report also accentuates India's demographic composition, with a robust working-age population and anticipated growth patterns. This development is set against the backdrop of a global population that reached 8 billion, growing at its slowest pace since 1950, as noted by the UNFPA report.
With an expansive youth cohort of 254 million individuals aged 15 to 24 years, India holds the potential to drive innovation, fresh perspectives, and enduring solutions. The country's trajectory can experience a significant leap forward through the empowerment of women and girls, granting them equitable access to education, skill development, technological advancements, and crucially, the ability to exercise their reproductive rights and choices. This insight was shared by Dr. Natalia Kanem, Executive Director of UNFPA, who emphasized that women's agency and freedom are pivotal to unleashing India's potential for progress.
According to the report, the average life expectancy for Indian males stands at 71 years, while for females, it is 74 years. India's total fertility rate, measured by the average number of births per woman in the reproductive age, is estimated at 2.0. The report also points out the prevalence of population concerns, leading governments to adopt diverse policies aimed at altering, maintaining, or reducing fertility rates. However, Dr. Natalia Kanem highlighted that such attempts often prove ineffective and can infringe upon women's rights. She firmly asserted that women's bodies must not be constrained by population targets.
To establish thriving and all-encompassing societies, regardless of population size, a fundamental shift is needed in the discourse surrounding population change. Dr. Kanem asserted that instead of fixating on reproduction rates, leaders should prioritize the question of whether individuals, especially women, possess the autonomy to make their own reproductive choices—a question that frequently receives a negative response.
As part of the report, a comprehensive public survey, conducted by YouGov across eight countries, including India, aimed to gauge public sentiment on population-related matters. The Indian segment of the survey, encompassing 1,007 participants, underscored key concerns. Economic matters emerged as the foremost worry, identified by 63 percent of respondents, followed by environmental concerns at 46 percent, and sexual and reproductive health, human rights concerns at 30 percent. Notably, respondents expressed concerns about India's sizable population and high fertility rates, irrespective of gender.
Intriguingly, while India's population surpassing China was anticipated, the process has been expedited by China's slowing growth. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease of 850,000 individuals in 2022 compared to the previous year. Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, highlighted that India's unique advantage lies in its larger young and working-age population compared to its dependent population (children and the elderly). This positioning contrasts with countries like Japan, which confront declining populations and an aging demographic, making India a potential source of skilled labor to meet global demands.
In conclusion, India's vast youth demographic presents an opportunity for innovation and progress, contingent upon empowering women and girls. The report's findings emphasize the need to prioritize individual agency, rather than mere reproduction rates, to foster inclusive societies. The public survey insights further shed light on pressing concerns among Indians. Moreover, India's population dynamics in relation to China's reflect the country's potential to provide skilled labor to nations with aging populations.
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